Course Description

The "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting" course, offered by the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, is an advanced-level online program designed to equip participants with essential skills in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. This comprehensive course delves into the intricacies of quarterly projection macroeconomic models, which form the backbone of Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS). Participants will gain hands-on experience in implementing key Canonical Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) equations using specialized macroeconomic modeling software.

What Students Will Learn

• Understanding of quarterly-projection-macroeconomic-models and their role in FPAS
• Implementation of QPM equations in macroeconomic modeling software
• Proficiency in using MATLAB/Octave and the IRIS Toolbox for model solving and maintenance
• Interpretation of key model equations from a macroeconomic perspective
• Application of data transformation, filtration, and model property evaluation techniques
• Development of basic calibration skills for QPM
• Creation of output reports using model codes

Prerequisites

While the course is listed as having no specific prerequisites, it is important to note that this is an advanced-level course. Participants would benefit from:

• Basic understanding of macroeconomics and monetary policy
• Familiarity with economic modeling concepts
• Basic knowledge of programming or willingness to learn
• Comfort with mathematical and statistical concepts

Course Coverage

• Introduction to canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties
• Implementation of QPM in MATLAB/Octave
• Application of IRIS Toolbox for solving and maintaining QPM
• Key building blocks of a canonical semi-structural QPM
• State-space form elements of QPM (shocks, variables, equations, parameters)
• Data transformation and filtration techniques
• Evaluation of QPM properties
• Basic calibration of QPM
• Output report creation using model codes

Target Audience

This course is ideal for:

• Central bank economists and researchers
• Government officials involved in monetary policy decision-making
• Financial analysts focused on macroeconomic forecasting
• Academic researchers in economics and finance
• Professionals seeking to enhance their skills in monetary policy analysis and forecasting

Real-World Applications

• Enhancing monetary policy decision-making processes in central banks
• Improving economic forecasting capabilities in financial institutions
• Conducting more accurate policy analysis in government organizations
• Advancing academic research in macroeconomics and monetary policy
• Developing sophisticated economic models for consulting firms
• Enhancing capacity development initiatives in international organizations

Syllabus Overview

1. Introduction to FPAS and QPM
2. New Keynesian Model Structure and Properties
3. MATLAB/Octave Basics for Economic Modeling
4. Introduction to IRIS Toolbox
5. QPM Implementation in MATLAB/Octave
6. Data Transformation and Filtration Techniques
7. Model Calibration and Evaluation
8. Output Report Creation and Interpretation
9. Case Studies and Practical Applications
10. Final Project or Assessment